Revised net migration, continued immigration from Ukraine, and other forecasting assumptions.
Abstract
In Population Projection 2026, net migration is revised upwards for both non-Western and Western foreigners compared to Population Projection 2025. For non-Western immigrants with foreign citizenship, the increase reflects both higher immigration and lower emigration propensities among those coming to Denmark with work and study permits. For Western immigrants with foreign citizenship, the increase is driven primarily by lower emigration propensities.
Migration is the main source of the differences between Population Projection 2026 and Population Projection 2025, while fertility and mortality assumptions remain broadly unchanged. As a result, a larger immigrant population is projected throughout the projection horizon. Over time, this leads to more descendants and increases the number of women in the childbearing ages. Consequently, the number of births is projected to rise despite slightly lower fertility assumptions for immigrants. The increase in births therefore reflects changes in population composition rather than changes in fertility behaviour.
