Demographic projections

Demographic projections

DREAM has developed three projection models that project population size, educational level and labour supply. The three models are closely related, as they are run sequentially. The projections are used independently to evaluate policy effects. In addition, the projections provide a part of the data for our economic models.

The so called DREAM-model-system consists of projections of population, education and labor supply, which feed into the computable general equilibrium dynamic macroeconomic model (the DREAM model) which is calibrated to the Danish economy. These different components allow the DREAM group to perform economic analysis, with a particular emphasis on investigating the public finance sustainability of economic policy.

About the DREAM-model-system

Population projection

The population projection is determined by estimates and changes in fertility, mortality, immigration and emigration. The forecast sheds light on developments in the population’s size as well as changes in the demographics e.g. gender, age, origin and grounds for residence.

Read an introduction to DREAM's population projection

Education projection

DREAM's education projection assesses the number of students in different types of education in the future. In addition, the model provides a projection of the level of education in the Danish population. The model is used for analyses of changes in educational behavior.

Read an introduction to DREAM's education projection

Labour market projection

The labour market projection estimate the development of the number of persons employed, unemployed, public pensioners, etc. The forecast accommodates relevant policy. The model can be utilised to evaluate the effects of labour market policy.

Read an introduction to DREAM's labour market projection