The importance of the model following individuals through their education is highlighted by the differences in individuals that start a high school education as opposed to starting a 10th grade. Those that start a high school education, after the nine compulsory years of primary schooling, are more likely to take a medium to long-term higher education, whereas those that complete 10th grade are more likely to take vocational educations.
The model is based on the educational behaviour observed from 1989 to the most recent statistics, which are typically two years earlier than the year of publication. As such, the expected take up and the number of completed educations are based on the latest observed data. This provides the forecast with some credibility as it is based on observables. The observed numbers are used to aid the statistical model to estimate the numbers that form a primary forecast. There are however situations where it is appropriate to correct the estimated numbers, e.g. in the case of explicit policy reform. An example of such correction was done in 2015 in response to the vocational education reform which introduced a range of increased enrolment requirements. The reform had a direct impact on the number of students enrolled in vocational educations, which had a direct consequence of lowering the uptake and was thus recorded in the data (for more details see the 2019-report link below). One might expect that the number of drop-outs would decrease as a result of the reform, which has been supported by the analyses of educational programs; however, it is not fully accounted for by the education statistics. If the data were not corrected, the model would underestimate the number of people which complete a vocational education. Therefore, the completion likelihoods are adjusted in accordance with the effects calculated by the Ministry of Education.
The results from the forecast are a qualified indication of the composition as well as the number of education levels acquired by the Danish population and the qualifications that will be supplied to the labour market.