Effects of Trade and Market Integration in a Small Open Economy - A Dynamic CGE Approach

Billede af publikationens forside
29-04-2002
DREAM

This report provides relatively detailed documentation of a simulation model that we applied in order to quantify the economic consequences of the East enlargement to the Danish economy.

Abstract

This report provides relatively detailed documentation of a simulation model that we applied in order to quantify the economic consequences of the East enlargement to the Danish economy. The extensive number of simulations goes to illustrate the order of magnitude of various economic mechanisms in the model. Hence the simulations should not be considered our nal oÆcial assesment of the impacts of the enlargement to Denmark. Most notably terms of trade e\u000bects induced by catching up of CEE countries are considered important but remain unimplemented in the experiments presented in this report.

The work presented here would not have been possible without the fruitful discussion and insights of Lars Haagen Pedersen. Obviously, a simulation study of the kind presented here requires extensive amounts of data and we are grateful to our former colleagues at Statistics Denmark for guidance and provision of useful datasets. Tim Folke, Asger Olsen and Morten Werner have been very helpful in providing us with IO and capital data and have extended us the courtesy of guiding us through some of the intricacies of interpreting these gures. With respect to data queries speci cally for international trade but also the operation of the database for ADAM we are grateful to Tony M. Kristensen.

The work presented here is the result of a joint e\u000bort. Morten Lobedanz S\u001crensen have primarily attended to the empiric foundation while the implementation of the model in the GAMS simulation software was attended to by Anders Due Madsen. The formulation of the model, experiment design and the interpretation of the results was conducted by the both of us. For contact information, please see the cover sheet.