Modeling Household Formation and Housing Demand in Denmark

Billede af publikationens forside
02-12-2013
SMILE

The DREAM group has developed the individual based microsimulation model SMILE, which project the housing demand on the Danish housing market. The purpose is to provide a basis for evaluation the future housing demand.

The report is also published in Danish:   Read Danish version

Abstract

The DREAM group has developed the individual based microsimulation model SMILE (Simulation Model for Individual Lifecycle Evaluation), which project the housing demand on the Danish housing market. The purpose is to provide a basis for evaluation the future housing demand. The microsimulation model consists of a demographic module and a housing module. The demographic module predicts the household structure of the Danish population, which cause a population projection divided on location/province, gender, age, origin, education, labour market status, family structure (i.e. couples or singles) and the number of children in the family. Such projection has not previously existed in Denmark. The housing module predicts the housing demands on basis of the household structure and is described by the housing locations (province and town size), owner and rental status (housing type), use (physical use), area (housing size) and construction year (housing age).

This report documents the model and consequently the methods and data basis of the prediction. It also presents results for the predictions baseline scenario, which uses the initial population and housing stock of 2010 as well as incidents and behaviour within a historical period. The baseline scenario ends in year 2040.